Closing SA — 2026-08-21

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Friday delivered a broad relief rally that clawed back a slice of Thursday’s selloff — the DJIA led with a +0.98% gain to 53,277.01 as materials, financials, health care, and small caps did the heavy lifting, while lingering semiconductor weakness kept the S&P 500 (+0.43% to 7,674.37) and Nasdaq (+0.43% to 26,201.49) gains muted; SPY/QQQ/IWM ETF levels and 200-day MA readings are unavailable in today’s data. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and constructive — lean into broadening leadership (metals, financials, consumer) but respect the still-heavy chip complex ahead of a PCE- and NVDA-loaded week. The tape was driven by stabilizing oil and Treasury yields plus a fierce precious-metals rally. Regime context — 51.2% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 52.9% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 223 bulls vs. 49 bears, a sharp flip from yesterday’s 107/247. The 5-day trend was a choppy down-week (S&P -1.4%) capped by a Friday bounce, signaling volatile stabilization rather than a clean trend.

SIP: HOOD TSLA COIN ROST

• What’s working: Continuation breakouts led with 2LYNCH: 15 signals, Darvas Box: 31, D9M: 8, 9M Catalyst: 3, Reversal Bullish: 4 — breakout/continuation setups dominated the tape.
• Leading sectors: Consumer Defensive +1.08%, Basic Materials +0.42%, Consumer Cyclical +0.37%; leading themes: Metal Ore Mining +4.63%, Generic Drugs +4.42%, Restaurants +3.93%.
• Key event: Gold futures jumped $110.50 (+2.4%) to $4,680.10, extending August’s ~$600/oz advance and driving FCX +7.65% and NEM +3.09% — the clearest leadership of the session.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (52.9%), closing is Cautious (51.2%) — held, as the Friday bounce lacked breadth expansion (20-SMA breadth actually slipped to 44% from 53%).
• DEP watchlist: MP, DK, CVI, SOUN, ASTS — mining and refiner momentum with fresh D9M/Darvas confirmation.
• SIPS: TSLA, ORCL, CCJ — Continuation candidates with institutional backing for tomorrow.

Market Breadth — 2026-08-21

Sentiment 4%	Bullish	40SMA	Bearish
Bull 4%	223	Bear 4%	49
% > 20 SMA	44%	% > 40 SMA	51.22%
Bull 9M	32	Bear 9M	5