Midday Wave #14: Bounce or Trap? 26% Breadth Tells the Real Story | WaveRider Midday Wave – Friday 3/13/2026

Market Recap — Session So Far

Markets are showing modest recovery from yesterday’s oil-driven selloff, with futures signaling a bounce attempt despite continued energy sector volatility.

• Breadth remains severely damaged with only 26% of stocks above 20-day moving averages, showing the oil shock’s broad impact
• Market sentiment stuck in neutral territory at 4%, while 40-day sentiment remains in oversold conditions
• Energy sector (RSPG) continues to dominate with +4.95% reading, while financials (-2.03%) and healthcare (-2.62%) lag significantly

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

• HNRG showing mixed signals with +4.04% change from open despite weak guidance, trading at $19.33 in coal energy space
• PAYP (PayPay Corp ADR) trading higher post-IPO at $18.16 with massive 12M+ average volume, gapping +18.75% from debut
• CSTM announced $300M buyback program but shares remain under pressure, down -1.4% from open at $24.59

Strategy Check — D9M, 9M Catalyst & Study Updates

• CRT (Controlled Risk Taking): Energy names like JETD showing extreme 4.95x ATR multiple with 60% surge potential but high volatility risk
• FFM (Find Free Money): TTDU ETF showing -2.32 ATR multiple with only 3.06% low-of-day risk, trading near weekly demand zone
• Failed setup warning: KLC gapped down on weak Q4 guidance despite being in education sector, now at critical $3.40 support level

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

• NBIG — Watch $8.67 supply resistance level for afternoon breakout attempt after touching 4-hour zone
• LITX — Monitor $24.20 level as lithium ETF shows neutral momentum with 162% gains from 52-week lows
• Defensive bias remains appropriate with oil volatility still driving session direction and broad market breadth showing persistent weakness