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Midday Wave #95: Narrow Thrust: Bulls Lead, Breadth Fades – Tuesday 8/25/2026

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Midday Situation Check

Mixed regime — 40SMA breadth at 50.17% (down from 54.43% yesterday), 20SMA at 51% (down from 62%), even as the 4% Sentiment flipped to Bullish.

Market Recap — Session So Far

  • SPY, QQQ, and IWM index data is unavailable today, so we’re flying on breadth and internals rather than headline index levels.
  • Breadth internals show a notable split: Bull 4% surged to 165 from 133 while Bear 4% collapsed to 39 from 232 — a sharp improvement in short-term thrust despite falling moving-average participation.
  • Longer-frame breadth is deteriorating: 20SMA participation dropped 11pp to 51% and 40SMA slid 4.3pp to 50.17%, so leadership is narrowing even as daily thrust improves.

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

  • Continuation leaders skew heavily to MINING and precious metals: AEM $222.94 (+2.3%, RVOL 0.8, INST) and AUGO $90.18 (+3.2%, RVOL 0.2) lead the pack.
  • Crypto-adjacent finance names are firing: CRCL $90.75 (+3.5%, RVOL 0.8) and BLSH $31.85 (+4.0%, RVOL 0.6) show the strongest continuation prints in FINANCE.
  • Best raw mover is CRCG $16.00 (+6.6%, RVOL 0.7) in the ETF/ETN/CEF bucket — the standout percentage gain among the 128 continuation signals.

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

  • Strongest holding continuation: BLSH at +4.0% and CRCL at +3.5%, both on above-0.6 RVOL, confirming the crypto-finance rotation. RVOL across the top 10 remains subdued (0.2–0.8), so conviction is still building.
  • SIP tape is stale (dated 8/18) — HD reported better Q2 results and guidance ($337.36), LOW rose in sympathy ($216.99), and VEEV ($248.56) had a price-target raise. No fresh entries this session.
  • 20% Study (8/24) confirms institutional momentum in defensives and metals: SCCO $214.24 at demand, VRTX $547.59 at demand, and HCA $428.96 pressing supply at $429.65–$431.32.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

  • HCA — watch the $429.65–$431.32 supply zone; a clean break confirms institutional continuation, rejection sends it back toward $406 demand.
  • ULTA — $538.96 4h supply is the line in the sand; $532 hold keeps the setup constructive, below invalidates.
  • Bias for the afternoon: cautiously constructive on thrust (Bull 4% 165 vs Bear 4% 39) but respect the narrowing MA breadth — favor mining and crypto-finance leaders, keep risk tight until RVOL confirms.