Power Hour #104: Trap-Day Alert: Tech Hides Cracking Breadth

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Breadth is contracting into the close even as the 4% sentiment reads bullish — a split-tape day where index-level confirmation is missing.

Breadth is fading: % above 20 SMA slipped to 29% from 31% (-2.0pp), and % above 40 SMA dropped to 31.66% from 34.04% (-2.4pp) — participation is narrowing, not expanding.
Leadership rotating into Tech: RSPT (Technology) ATR jumped to 0.46, a 100th-percentile reading and +2.56% on the day, while Industrials (RSPN -1.77) and Utilities (RSPU -2.45) stay pinned at the bottom.
Character is choppy-to-reversal: SPY, QQQ and IWM data are unavailable, so lean on internals — with Bull 4% at 132 vs Bear 4% at 50 (a big swing from yesterday’s 91/277), buyers stepped in but breadth divergence keeps it a stock-picker’s tape.

Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): IESC $344.45 leads at +7.8%, with ARW $227.76 +6.7% (RVOL 1.2) and SANM $216.55 +6.5% — the Building/Electronics cluster (EME, FIX, PWR, STRL) is the day’s clear power group.
Strongest reversal setup: CPA $129.95 +1.1% on RVOL 2.2 tops the bullish reversals; watch AVAV $145.03 (RVOL 2.0) reclaiming ground and CMC $66.86 near $67 as a base-building metals name.
SIP leaders: DSGX $71.32 posted better-than-expected Q2 (sentiment +2) but is fading -2.31% from open — momentum failing intraday; DKNG got a price-target raise and holds +0.3%.
SIP failures to avoid: LEU $165.80 down -4.87% from open on a UBS downgrade, and UAL $106.49 with an analyst target cut — no chasing weakness here.
Most relevant code — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): the Building/Electronics continuation wall (IESC, ARW, FIX, EME, PWR) plus surging RSPT ATR is textbook sector rotation to ride.

Close/trim before the bell: exit LEU (-4.87% from open, downgrade) and lighten DSGX — good earnings but selling into the print is a red flag; don’t hold hope trades overnight.
Enter on confirmation (CRT): ARW $227.76 and IESC $344.45 into strength — use FFM discipline, keep risk ≤2.5%, and only add if they close near highs on the last-hour push.
Key level caveat: SPY/QQQ/IWM levels are unavailable today, so let breadth be your guide — if % above 20 SMA stabilizes above 29% into the close, the Tech-led bid carries; another leg down in breadth means stay defensive.

Catalyst watch: monitor follow-through in the Building/Electronics leaders and any morning analyst actions like today’s DKNG raise and UAL/LEU cuts that set the tone.
Setup forming: CMC $66.86 coiling near $67 on RVOL 1.8 — a clean break above today’s high is a TTT/reversal trigger; SANM $216.55 also sets up as a continuation add if it holds.
Regime outlook: with breadth contracting under a rising Tech tape, treat tomorrow as ABC (Always Be in Control) — favor confirmed sector winners, keep size tight, and don’t assume a trend until breadth turns back up.