Power Hour #15: Final Hour Playbook: Bearish Confirmation & High-Stakes Entries

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Today’s regime remains highly bearish — no shift from morning. Breadth deteriorated vs. yesterday: % above 20 SMA fell 7.0pp (32% → 25%), % above 40 SMA fell 3.4pp (26.05% → 22.63%).

Bearish sentiment dominates: 485 bear signals vs. 64 bull (Bull 4% = 4%, down from 121 yesterday).
Energy (RSPG) is the only sector with positive ATR (+5.9) and rising — all others are negative and falling or flat.
Today’s character: reversal-confirmed downtrend — broad weakness accelerating in afternoon, no sustained counter-trend bid.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Strongest continuation signal: PLYX at $8.26 (+29.5%, RVOL 0.6), highest ATR%-M (5.7%) — continuation breakout in Healthcare.
Strongest reversal setup: VTS at $18.64 (−4.1%, RVOL 2.5), risk 145.8% — extreme ATR%-M (−1.9%) suggests oversold reversal candidate.
SIP leaders: ABTC down −6.62% from open amid crypto selloff (sentiment −1), CEG up but down −1.93% from open — no strong reversal confirmation.
Key action code: FFM — only actionable intraday setups show ≤2.5% risk in top SIPs (SSRM, KOD) and reversal cluster (VTS).

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Close any short exposure in Energy — AMR (+3.0%), VIST (+2.6%), and CVX (+1.7%) are all trending higher on RVOL >0.7 — energy momentum is institutional-grade.
Enter only if PLYX holds above $8.20 — it’s the highest ATR%-M (5.7%) and RVOL 0.6 in Reversal Bullish — low-risk breakout candidate.
If SPY holds above $521.00 (SMA50 assumed), then minor relief rally can extend — but if it breaks below $518.00, expect Monday gap-down continuation (per breadth collapse).

Tomorrow’s Early Look

Overnight catalyst: Fed speakers (Barr, Waller) — watch for hawkish nuance ahead of Monday’s session.
Setup forming: SSRM — SIP shows normal course bid, EPS Q/Q +2964%, RVOL 1.17, funds +4.6% — potential $24.60 → $26.00 breakout.
Regime outlook: If SPY closes below 25% above 20 SMA (today’s 25%), tomorrow’s plan becomes defensive — focus on energy, utilities, and reversal reversal setups (FFM strategy).