Power Hour #99: Trading Blind: Breadth Cracks in the Final Hour

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Index data is unavailable for SPY, QQQ, and IWM today, so we’re navigating by breadth alone — and breadth is quietly contracting under a bullish-tinted surface.

Breadth contracting: % Above 20 SMA dropped to 11% from 17% (-6.0pp), and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 44.12% from 45.81% (-1.7pp) — participation is narrowing into the close.
Sector rotation: Energy (RSPG) leads at 3.33 and rising, while Technology (RSPT) sits at -1.37 (16th percentile) and Industrials (RSPN) at -1.46 — money favoring energy over cyclicals.
Character: Bull 4% still healthy at 143 vs Bear 4% at 57, but the day reads choppy-to-defensive as fewer names hold above short-term moving averages.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): TSLA at $381.37, +6.8% on 1.3 RVOL with 5K institutional flag — the cleanest large-cap momentum print. MSFT +3.3% at $513.07 and CRM +3.8% at $266.57 back the software theme.
Strongest reversal setup: AGX at $421.04, +2.6% on 2.0 RVOL — a rare green reversal-bullish name while chip-linked ETFs (AVGG, AVL) show heavy volume on red closes; watch AGX for confirmation.
SIP leaders: SOFI ($17.84) up +4.63% from open on a banking partnership is holding; KKR ($106.43, +0.76%) firm. Fades: GIS ($40.59, -1.55%) and GOLD ($43.91) on a Q4 miss.
Action code — 2LYNCH (Continuation Breakout): Software momentum (TSLA, MSFT, CRM, TEAM +5.0%, TWLO +6.2%) is the day’s real leadership tape and the highest-conviction playbook.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

CLOSE / trim: Chip exposure showing distribution — AVGO at $356.52, -2.9% on 3.3 RVOL, plus GOLD post-miss and GIS. Tighten stops or exit into the bell.
ENTER on confirmation: TSLA above intraday highs from $381.37, or CRM holding $266+, are the setups to add if they close strong; use FFM/CRT sizing given narrowing breadth.
Key level: With SPY data unavailable, let breadth be your gauge — if % Above 20 SMA falls further below 11% into the close, treat rallies as sell-the-rip and keep risk small overnight.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

Catalyst watch: Energy strength (RSPG at 3.33) plus GOLD’s miss keep commodities front-and-center; monitor any crude/metals follow-through pre-market.
Setup forming: AGX near $421 — a hold here sets a continuation base; TSLA follow-through above $381.37 remains the momentum tell.
Regime outlook: Contracting breadth means today’s leadership is narrow — stay selective, favor energy/software leaders, and don’t chase a thin tape until % Above 20 SMA stabilizes.