Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Friday 12PM 12/05/2025

By WaveRider AI6 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis (EST window analyzed: 2025-12-05 10:00–12:00, with a few symbols including BYSI showing an extra 09:30 bar today and one 15:30 bar on 2025-12-04)
– Note on data scope: The upload contains 30-minute intraday bars for today’s session (and one late bar yesterday for BYSI), not full 30-/10-day daily data. Commentary below emphasizes today’s momentum and recent relative strength/weakness observed across sectors represented by your list.

  • Technology/Semis/Software: Mixed-to-weak today. Semis (AVGO, AMD) faded off the open and stabilized lower; large-cap SaaS (NOW) popped early then bled back; HUBS faded after an early push. Payments (V, CPAY) were range-bound. Net: tech momentum is cooling intraday, leadership appears selective rather than broad.
    • Referenced tickers: AVGO, AMD, NOW, HUBS, V, CPAY.
  • Financials: Positive skew. Data/ratings names (FDS, MCO) trended higher steadily with rising highs/lows and decent volume. Advisory/boutique (EVR, PIPR) were more range-bound on light volume.
    • Referenced tickers: FDS, MCO, EVR, PIPR.
  • Consumer Discretionary/Retail & Luxury: Selective strength. Beauty and specialty retail posted controlled uptrends (ULTA), off-price/dollar retail bid (DLTR), luxury apparel strong trend (RL). Travel/OTAs (BKNG, EXPE) were range-bound; e-commerce (W) softened mid-morning. Specialty retail (FIVE) up then consolidating.
    • Referenced tickers: ULTA, DLTR, RL, BKNG, EXPE, W, FIVE.
  • Metals/Miners/Precious: Weak mid-morning risk-off drift after an early pop. Junior gold/silver ETFs (GDXJ, SILJ) and selective miners (MUX) slipped; seniors (FNV) flat-to-soft; SVM stable but sector tone was heavy.
    • Referenced tickers: GDXJ, SILJ, FNV, SVM, MUX, GLTR.
  • Energy: Soft. Onshore E&P (FANG) and offshore drillers (BORR) leaned lower-to-flat with sellers into strength. Gas-weighted GPOR also range-to-weak.
    • Referenced tickers: FANG, BORR, GPOR.
  • Healthcare/Biotech/Medtech: Mixed. Large-cap devices/robotics (ISRG) slid, REGN softened; RMD showed a slow grind up; TMDX pulled back; ALAB had early high-volume rebound then cooled.
    • Referenced tickers: ISRG, REGN, RMD, TMDX, ALAB.
  • Industrials/Materials/RE: Range-to-soft. Industrials (PH), materials/aggregates (VMC), and engineered products (CSL) mostly churn; JLL edged lower.
    • Referenced tickers: PH, VMC, CSL, JLL.

Noticeable intraday patterns
– Relative strength clusters: Financial data/ratings (FDS, MCO) and discretionary leaders (ULTA, RL, DLTR).
– Relative weakness: Metals/miners (GDXJ/SILJ complex), Energy (FANG/BORR), select tech (AVGO/AMD), software fade (HUBS/NOW).
– Volume confirms: FDS and MCO saw consistent bid with higher highs; ULTA and RL showed clean trend structure; DLTR had a strong morning expansion, then healthy consolidation.

Ticker Performance Prediction (likely upside next 2–3 days, momentum basis)
– ULTA, FDS, MCO, RL, DLTR, RDDT, DUOL
– Rationale: Clean intraday uptrends (higher highs/lows) or strong morning expansions that consolidated constructively without giving back gains; sectors with relative strength today (financials, select discretionary) often lead near-term.

Individual Stock Analysis (1–3 day swing plan; levels derived from today’s 30-min structure; targets lean on nearby resistance and 1–2% extensions; manage risk intraday)

  1. ULTA
    – Trend/Setup: Strong morning expansion to ~612 area, then orderly pullback holding higher lows.
    – Support (demand):
    – S1: 608.20–608.80 (12:00 bar low/close zone)
    – S2: 607.72–607.81 (11:00–11:30 higher lows)
    – S3: 605.08 (10:30 low)
    – Resistance (supply):
    – R1: 610.74
    – R2: 611.75–611.90
    – R3: 615.00 (psych extension)
    – 2–3 day price action view (30-min): Expect a 607.5–612 coil; sustained hold above 610.7 opens a retest of 611.9 and a potential push to 615. If 607.7 fails, look for a shakeout toward 605 before buyers try again.
    – Swing targets (1–3 days): T1 611.9, T2 615.0, stretch T3 620.0 if momentum broadens in discretionary.
    – Entry: Prefer pullbacks 608.2–608.8 or reclaim >610.8 after a brief dip.
    – Stop: 604.9 (just below S2/S3 cluster).
    –

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  1. FDS
    – Trend/Setup: Persistent trend day higher; higher highs and higher lows into midday with strong 11:00–12:00 continuation.
    – Support:
    – S1: 287.07
    – S2: 285.94–286.00
    – S3: 284.64
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 288.9996
    – R2: 290.00 (psych)
    – R3: 292.00 (1% extension)
    – 2–3 day view: As long as 286 holds on closing basis, look for a grind to 289–290, then a measured push toward 291–292. Loss of 286 risks a retest of 284.6.
    – Swing targets: T1 289.0, T2 290.0–291.0, T3 292.0–293.0.
    – Entry: 287.1–287.4 pullbacks; or through 289.0 on expanding volume.
    – Stop: 285.4 (below S2).
    –

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  1. MCO
    – Trend/Setup: Strong and steady advance, printing new intraday highs through ~497.7 and closing near highs.
    – Support:
    – S1: 495.75–495.80
    – S2: 494.81
    – S3: 493.25
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 496.93
    – R2: 497.73
    – R3: 500.00 (psych round)
    – 2–3 day view: Momentum continuation likely if 495.8 holds; eye a push through 497.7 into a 500 test. Failures back under 494.8 threaten a digestion day first.
    – Swing targets: T1 497.7, T2 500.0, T3 504.0 (if financials stay bid).
    – Entry: 495.8–496.2 pullbacks; or break-and-hold above 497.8.
    – Stop: 493.7 (below S2).
    –

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  1. RL
    – Trend/Setup: Clean trend higher from ~361 to ~367 with shallow pullbacks — leadership look within luxury discretionary.
    – Support:
    – S1: 366.48–366.52
    – S2: 365.31–365.39
    – S3: 363.12
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 367.12
    – R2: 368.00 (psych)
    – R3: 370.00 (psych/round)
    – 2–3 day view: Expect consolidation 365.5–367.2; a range break above 367.1 can tag 368 then 370. Lose 365.3 and the trend may pause toward 363s before reattempt.
    – Swing targets: T1 367.1–368.0, T2 370.0, T3 373.0.
    – Entry: 366.5 retests; or 367.2 breakout with volume.
    – Stop: 364.9 (below S2).
    –

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  1. DLTR
    – Trend/Setup: Strong morning drive to 124.7 area, then constructive digestion mid-day — classic bull flag behavior.
    – Support:
    – S1: 123.55–123.85
    – S2: 122.64
    – S3: 121.19
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 124.70
    – R2: 125.00 (psych)
    – R3: 126.00 (psych/extension)
    – 2–3 day view: If 123.6–123.9 continues to hold, look for a push through 124.7 into 125–126. A loss of 122.6 likely delays the move and invites a deeper pullback to 121s.
    – Swing targets: T1 124.7–125.0, T2 126.0, T3 127.5.
    – Entry: Stagger bids 123.6–123.9; or momentum add >124.8.
    – Stop: 122.3 (below S2).
    –

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  1. RDDT
    – Trend/Setup: Strong opening expansion (226 → 236+) and held gains while making a fresh high into late morning — bulls in control intraday.
    – Support:
    – S1: 235.87
    – S2: 233.00–233.67 (10:30 high/retest zone)
    – S3: 230.78
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 237.34–237.41
    – R2: 240.00 (psych)
    – R3: 246.00 (extension area)
    – 2–3 day view: Holding above 235.9 favors continuation toward 237.4 and a test of 240. A dip into 233s that quickly reclaims 235.9 remains bullish; loss of 233 likely forces 231 test.
    – Swing targets: T1 237.4, T2 240.0, T3 244–246.
    – Entry: 235.9–236.2 pullbacks; or break >237.5 with volume.
    – Stop: 231.9 (below S3 risk pivot).
    –

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  1. DUOL
    – Trend/Setup: Early push above 200, then controlled pullback holding 197s — potential for a higher-low base under 200.
    – Support:
    – S1: 197.25–197.87
    – S2: 196.41
    – S3: 193.72
    – Resistance:
    – R1: 198.29
    – R2: 199.95–200.00
    – R3: 201.79
    – 2–3 day view: If 197s continue to hold, a reattempt at 200 is likely; breakout through 200 can target 201.8 and a measured extension. A close below 196.4 would defer the setup.
    – Swing targets: T1 199.9–200.0, T2 201.8, T3 205.0.
    – Entry: 197.3–197.9 demand tests; or strong reclaim >199.2 into 200.
    – Stop: 195.9 (below S2).
    –

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Risk notes and next steps
– Because the uploaded data is intraday-only, the “daily” supply/demand zones and ATR-based targets are approximated using today’s 30-min structure and common round-number extensions. For higher confidence on 1–3 day targets and the requested 30-/10-day context, share daily OHLCV for the past 30 sessions; I’ll refine the levels/targets with multi-timeframe confluence.
– Trade management: Favor scaling in near S1/S2 and trimming into R1/R2. If price loses S2 on a closing 30-min basis, reduce risk and reassess.