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Swing Idea

Continuation Breakout Wednesday 4PM 12/03/2025

By WaveRider AI6 min read

Overall Sector and Industry Analysis

Datetime range (EST) analyzed: 2025-12-03 from 13:30 to 16:30.

Scope note: The data provided are intraday 30-minute bars from a single session across many tickers/ETFs. I’m emphasizing the last 10 bars where available and using that momentum/relative volume context to frame 1–3 day swing biases.

  • Broad market:
    • SPY and QQQ finished essentially flat-to-marginally lower into the close after mid-afternoon strength faded (SPY 684.9→683.9; QQQ 624.15→623.17). IWM (small caps) held slightly firmer intraday, closing near session highs (249.63).
    • Takeaway: No broad risk-off; rotation and stock/sector selection mattered.
  • Semiconductors led:
    • SOXX/SMH pushed to session highs into 15:30 and held most gains (SOXX 309.57 high, held 309 into the close; SMH 364.58 high, closed 364.01). Individual semis showed accumulation: KLAC grinded higher into the close; TER/TSM stable to higher; MTSI firmed and closed near highs; CAMT broke higher late; SOXL (levered ETF) confirmed strong chip bid intraday.
    • Takeaway: Semi strength is the day’s clearest leadership, favoring follow-through long setups (tickers: MTSI, CAMT, KLAC, TER, TSM).
  • AI/software mixed:
    • PLTR broke out late and closed strong; NET stair-stepped higher through the afternoon. GOOGL/GOOG faded from highs; SNOW collapsed after-hours (265→~241), which could create bifurcation among software/data names next 1–2 days.
    • Takeaway: Momentum still favors selective AI/cloud leaders (PLTR, NET) despite weakness in some mega-cap platforms.
  • Industrials steady-bid:
    • Strength into the close in ROK, PH, WAB; URI reclaimed intraday dips; DE finished higher. Electrical/automation names (HUBB, AYI) were mixed but not risk-off.
    • Takeaway: Constructive for cyclicals; risk-on tone beyond just tech.
  • Retail/consumer soft:
    • Department stores and discounters faded (M, DLTR). SHOP slipped. PVH saw a sharp after-hours downtick. Travel/airlines mixed: UAL stabilized; ALGT faded.
    • Takeaway: Avoid broad retail near-term; prefer selective consumer services with relative strength.
  • Materials/metals mixed-to-soft:
    • CLF and AA faded; NUE couldn’t hold highs; CRH slipped. RS held better.
    • Takeaway: No broad buy signal in steels/aluminum yet.
  • Small-cap momentum pockets:
    • RCAT stair-stepped with heavy volume, closing strong; SYRE pushed to new local highs; RGTX had a big range expansion; DC and POET saw strong intraday bids.
    • Takeaway: Momentum breadth exists under the surface; focus on liquid names with expanding volume.

Noticeable trends/patterns:
– Leadership concentration in semiconductors (SOXX/SMH; MTSI, CAMT, KLAC) and selective AI/cloud (PLTR, NET).
– Retail weakness continues (M, DLTR, PVH), suggesting sector underweight for short-term swing.
– Mixed mega-cap tech (GOOG/GOOGL faded) while beta/momentum pockets outperformed (PLTR, NET, RCAT, SYRE).

Ticker Performance Prediction (next 2–3 days)

Most likely to push higher (bullish momentum and constructive closing structure):
– PLTR – late-day breakout with higher highs/higher lows; strong close above intraday range.
– NET – steady intraday trend, closed near highs with higher lows pattern intact.
– MTSI – chips leadership; closed near session highs; buyers defended dips.
– CAMT – late push to new intraday highs on volume; benefits from semi tailwind.
– RCAT – small-cap momentum with volume expansion; orderly intraday higher lows.
– SYRE – strong late-day breakout into the close with rising volume.

Strongest bullish signals: PLTR, NET, MTSI, CAMT.

Individual Stock Analysis

Note on ATR: Using today’s intraday range as a proxy for a 1-day move to frame 1–3 day targets. Validate with your platform’s daily ATR for sizing.

  1. PLTR
    – Context: Trend-day afternoon breakout; semi/AI beta tailwinds.
    – Key supports (daily/supply-demand zones inferred from session structure):
    – 176.00 (round and close zone)
    – 175.10 (post-breakout higher low)
    – 174.80 (pre-breakout base)
    – Key resistances:
    – 176.50–176.90 (late-session supply)
    – 177.90–178.00 (session high area)
    – 180.00 (round; ≈ 1x intraday ATR from close)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Look for an early pullback into 175.2–175.8; if buyers defend, push toward 176.9 then 177.9.
    – Day 2–3: If price accepts above 177.9, extension toward 179.5–180.5.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 176.9
    – T2 177.9–178.5
    – T3 180.0–181.0 (ATR extension)
    – Entry ideas: Scale 175.2–175.8 on dip or >176.5 reclaim after a pullback.
    – Stop-loss: Tight 174.70; wider 173.90 (session low vicinity).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

  1. NET
    – Context: Persistent intraday uptrend; strong close.
    – Key supports:
    – 203.60 (15:30 breakout retest zone)
    – 203.10–203.15 (midday shelf)
    – 202.70 (session swing low)
    – Key resistances:
    – 204.35 (close)
    – 204.80–205.00 (session high zone/round)
    – 206.50 (≈ 1x intraday ATR from close)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Buy-the-dip behavior likely above 203.6; probe 204.8–205.
    – Day 2–3: Hold above 205 turns focus to 206.2–206.8; failure back below 203.1 delays.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 204.8–205.0
    – T2 205.8–206.2
    – T3 206.5–207.0
    – Entry ideas: 203.6–203.9 pullback or 204.4–204.5 breakout-and-hold.
    – Stop-loss: 202.60–202.70 (beneath session low).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

  1. MTSI
    – Context: Semi leadership; strong close near HOD; buyers absorbed dips.
    – Key supports:
    – 182.47 (14:30 ref)
    – 182.12 (afternoon higher low area)
    – 181.70 (session low)
    – Key resistances:
    – 183.90 (HOD)
    – 185.00 (round; ≈ 1x ATR up)
    – 186.50 (≈ 1.5x intraday ATR up)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Expect early dip-bid 182.4–182.9; test 183.9; through that opens 185.
    – Day 2–3: Above 185, momentum could extend into 186–187 if semis stay firm.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 183.9
    – T2 185.0
    – T3 186.0–186.5
    – Entry ideas: 182.6–183.0 on pullback; or through 183.9 with volume.
    – Stop-loss: 181.60 (below session low structure).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

  1. CAMT
    – Context: Late-session push to new highs with volume; rides semi tailwind.
    – Key supports:
    – 116.37 (15:30 bar low)
    – 116.10 (14:00 support)
    – 115.67 (intraday base)
    – Key resistances:
    – 117.20 (HOD)
    – 118.00 (round)
    – 120.00 (round/extension ≈ 1–1.5x ATR)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Buy dips 116.3–116.8; a strong reclaim over 117.2 targets 118.
    – Day 2–3: Holding >118 invites a grind toward 119.3–120.0.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 117.2–117.5
    – T2 118.0–118.6
    – T3 119.3–120.0
    – Entry ideas: 116.3–116.8 pullbacks; or break-and-hold over 117.2.
    – Stop-loss: 115.60 (below base).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

  1. RCAT
    – Context: Small-cap momentum with expanding volume; higher highs/higher lows into the close.
    – Key supports:
    – 7.49–7.52 (close zone)
    – 7.47–7.50 (intra support shelf)
    – 7.33 (session low/open pivot)
    – Key resistances:
    – 7.61 (HOD)
    – 7.65–7.70 (minor supply/round)
    – 7.80–7.90 (ATR extension/overhead)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Expect dip-buys 7.45–7.52; push 7.61–7.70; strong volume could pop 7.80.
    – Day 2–3: If 7.70 holds as support, 7.90–8.10 becomes feasible.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 7.61–7.65
    – T2 7.75–7.80
    – T3 7.95–8.10
    – Entry ideas: 7.45–7.52 pullbacks; or momentum add on 7.62–7.65 through HOD with volume.
    – Stop-loss: 7.29 (beneath morning base).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

  1. SYRE
    – Context: Broadening breakout with strong late push; volume rising.
    – Key supports:
    – 31.51 (15:30 pivot)
    – 31.26 (intraday higher low)
    – 30.80 (prior breakout area)
    – Key resistances:
    – 32.26 (HOD)
    – 32.80–33.00 (round)
    – 34.00–34.20 (≈ 1x intraday ATR up from close)
    – 30-min path (2–3 days):
    – Day 1: Pullback buy 31.6–31.9; test 32.26; hold above opens 32.8–33.
    – Day 2–3: Acceptance >33 targets 33.6–34.2.
    – 1–3 day targets:
    – T1 32.25–32.30
    – T2 32.80–33.00
    – T3 33.60–34.20
    – Entry ideas: 31.6–31.9 pullback; or through 32.30 with volume confirmation.
    – Stop-loss: 30.95–31.10 (below breakout shelf).
    –

Open full analysis on WaveFinder →

Risk management and notes
– Position sizing: Use 0.5–1.0x your normal risk in small-cap momentum (RCAT, SYRE) given volatility.
– Confirmation: Prefer entries on pullbacks holding higher lows or breakouts that retest and hold.
– Headwinds: SNOW’s after-hours drop may weigh on some software names; watch for sympathy early.
– Market context: If SMH/SOXX continue to lead, semi-related longs (MTSI, CAMT) have the highest odds of follow-through.

If you want me to expand levels/targets for any other names (e.g., AXON, KLAC, TER), I can add them.